- Clearer Thinking Team
How to make better cost estimates, avoid project delays, & fight the Planning Fallacy
Updated: Sep 28, 2021
The Planning Fallacy is the ingrained human tendency to underestimate the amounts of time and resources required to complete projects. It can strike whenever you try to determine how long a task will take, how much a project will cost, or how much time you'll need to travel from point A to point B. It has the potential to affect anything from minor personal plans to multi-billion-dollar public projects. Everyone is susceptible to it — it's wired into our very brains.
But fortunately, it's possible to guard yourself against this kind of systematic underestimation. Our free mini-course on the Planning Fallacy is loaded with tactics for pushing back against this damaging cognitive bias. It's organized into 4 parts:
In Part 1, we'll define the Planning Fallacy and look at three of the psychological mechanisms that cause it.
In Part 2, we'll introduce three tell-tale signs that will help you identify the Planning Fallacy in your own thinking.
In Part 3, we'll teach you Reference Class Forecasting, an effective strategy for overcoming the Planning Fallacy.
In Part 4, we'll elaborate upon that strategy with some more advanced tactics.
If you master the techniques taught in this mini-course, you'll be much better able to predict how much time and money you should reserve for your personal ventures. You'll also be able to make more accurate time and cost forecasts at work, at school, and wherever else you're required to engage in undertakings of indeterminate length or cost. Try the mini-course for free right here.