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How to Find Your False Beliefs (Without Creating a Paradox)
Short of time? Read the key takeaways ❓ The Preface Paradox seems to show that it's possible to be rationally justified in believing a contradiction. It imagines an diligent author who is rationally justified in believing each of the claims in her book are true (and therefore that all the claims are true), but also rationally justified in believing that she must have made some mistakes (and therefore that not all claims are true). 🔍 The paradox shows up in your own life too
3 days ago12 min read


What can a single data point teach you?
Short of time? Here are the key takeaways: ❓ Most single data points are misleading when you generalize from them. One experience or anecdote rarely supports broad conclusions about how things work. 💡 However, a single data point can still be informative by revealing possibilities. One well verified observation can show that something exists or can happen, immediately disproving claims of impossibility and motivating further investigation, even before any statistical confid
Feb 47 min read


How to have conversations that don't feel boring with strangers
Short of time? Here are the key takeaways: ❓ People differ widely in how much they enjoy chatting with strangers. Some actively welcome it, while others strongly dislike it. Because you can’t reliably tell in advance, good conversations start with sensitivity to signals of interest or disinterest. 🌱 Conversations get easier when you steer toward what the other person cares about. Asking what they’re genuinely interested in, and then following up thoughtfully, often leads to
Jan 288 min read
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