How good are your predictions, really?
Updated: Mar 10
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Will you be happier if you move to a different city?
Should you stick with your career or choose a new one?
Will that relationship last?
So many important decisions in your life require prediction skills, but those skills can be hard to hone.
Prediction isn't just a challenge in our own lives though. Just take a look at the news, and you’ll see wildly different predictions about the same thing. For example, predictions about the new artificial intelligence technology ChatGPT include:
It will “transform academia” (Stephen Marche, writing for The Atlantic)
It will “redefine human knowledge, accelerate changes in the fabric of our reality, and reorganize politics and society” (Henry Kissinger, writing for the Wall Street Journal)
It’s not actually a big deal and all this enthusiasm is “misplaced” (Ian Bogost, writing for The Atlantic)
So who is right? And how can you tell?
To help you answer these kinds of questions and to help you make more accurate predictions in your own life about the things that matter to you most, we've curated some of our best content on the topic of making accurate predictions.
Quiz: Improve Your Frequency Predictions
First, we suggest testing your prediction skills by completing the quick "Improve Your Frequency Predictions" quiz. It's free and takes about 15 minutes.
At the end, you will be able to compare your scores to other users!
Article: How to Make Better Predictions
After finishing the quiz and comparing your score with other users, you might want to check our full article on how to make better predictions. In it, we provide five practical tips to improve the accuracy of predictions.
Quiz: Calibrate Your Judgement
Want to go further? We also have a quiz with question sets to help you become adept at making well-calibrated judgments. You can also track your progress over time so you can see how you improve!
Podcast: Forecasting the Things that Matter
Last (but not least!), if you are a "podcast person" and want to dive deeper into the topic, we have an insightful ClearerThinking Podcast episode with Peter Wildeford: "Forecasting the things that matter".
We hope you enjoy the contents we brought you today! Please consider sharing it to help us in our mission of improving lives by closing the gap between academic research and the real world.
We leave you with a quote for when you’re feeling uncertain about the future:
"To be hopeful means to be uncertain about the future, to be tender toward possibilities."