Normalcy Bias: Definition, Examples and Effects

Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to underestimate the likelihood of a disaster or other catastrophic event occurring. It is a form of cognitive dissonance that leads people to believe that, since a disaster has not occurred in the past, it is unlikely to occur in the future. This bias can lead to a false sense of security and can have serious consequences if it causes people to ignore potential threats.

Definition: Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to underestimate the likelihood of a disaster or other catastrophic event occurring. It is a form of cognitive dissonance that leads people to believe that, since a disaster has not occurred in the past, it is unlikely to occur in the future.

Examples: One example of normalcy bias is the belief that a natural disaster, such as an earthquake or hurricane, will not occur in a particular area. Another example is the belief that a terrorist attack will not occur in a particular city or country.

Effects: Normalcy bias can lead to a false sense of security and can have serious consequences if it causes people to ignore potential threats. It can also lead to complacency and a lack of preparedness for disasters or other catastrophic events. Additionally, it can lead to a lack of awareness of potential risks and a lack of action to mitigate those risks.

Do you want to expand your knowledge on this topic? Read our full in-depth article on cognitive biases.

Do you have extra 15 minutes today? Takeour fun and interactive quiz to learn which of 16 reasoning styles you use, your overall level of rationality, and what you can do now to improve your rationality skills.