• Clearer Thinking Team

Fine-tune your confidence with the Overconfidence Analyzer.


We just launched the Overconfidence Analyzer, a brand-new tool for evaluating your relative confidence at any skill! It was recently featured in the New York Times, and more than 6,000 users have already learned about overconfidence with its help. Click here to try it out!

Is your faith in your ability to write, play soccer, start a company, or manage money justified relative to others? Or are you comparatively overconfident in your capabilities? The Overconfidence Analyzer helps you understand when overconfidence and underconfidence might strike – which can have major implications for the decisions you make.

The Overconfidence Analyzer is the culmination of four ClearerThinking.org studies which examined confidence about skills (as opposed to ideas). The data we gathered during this series of studies enabled us to build a mathematical model which can help predict how accurate your relative level of confidence is for any skill, based on your answers to just a few questions about that skill.

You can use the Overconfidence Analyzer to:

  • Predict how accurate your level of confidence is for any skill, based on your answers to just a few questions.

  • Get an estimate for how overconfident (or underconfident!) others are likely to be regarding that skill.

  • Understand more about how overconfidence and underconfidence work in general, and the implications they have for your life and for society.

Click here to try the Overconfidence Analyzer, and find out if your confidence needs some fine-tuning! (Or, read a thorough explanation of our research in the New York Times before trying the tool for yourself.)

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